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Post by Swampy on Jan 29, 2021 3:47:52 GMT -5
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Post by Sir John on Sept 22, 2021 18:56:33 GMT -5
I am convinced that Taiwan has the capacity to stop a Chinese invasion fleet, probably before it gets to the half way point.
As Eisenhower and Nimitz well knew, it takes about a 2 to 1 troops advantage to be reasonably confident of a successful 'over the beach' invasion. Taiwan has about 70,000 front line troops to defend the dozen or so 'invadeable' beaches on the island. All the rest are just mud flats. Of that dozen there are maybe 6 that are the probables. Most of those are in the northern 25 kms of Taiwan. Most are near Taipei.
So, China MUST transport 150,000 troops in probably 30 to 40 troop-ships (civilian ferries), along with maybe the same number of supply ships. Add the DDG and FFG type escorts and you have maybe an invasion fleet of 100 to 150 ships.
The troop ships are the Grand Prize and the supply ships are the second prize.
It took Eisenhower a full year to gather his invasion force, and US Satellites will document progress on a daily basis. There is NO possibility of a surprise attack!
Taiwan has three top rate missiles, the Brave Wind.3. anti-ship, the Sky Bow.3. Anti-air and the Yun Feng LACM, all are supersonic or hypersonic and have a rage of 400, 200, and 1000 kms. Most are truck mounted and cannot be targeted with any up to date info on position. The first 2 have been in full production for 10 years.
The invasion will be opened with a barrage of missiles to try and eliminate Taiwan's planes and ships, but not ony will that fail, but it will allow Taiwan to attack the PRC invasion ports. Assuming that the fleet will be at sea they will have no ports for resupply and reinforcement.
Admiral Xi knows all this and he will NOT gamble his repution and that of China, in an almost guaranteed disaster.
China is a "Paper Dragon" and is all bullshit, bluster, and no action. The USA and allies will have NIL need to "send in the marines" though a dozen 'Virginia's' would be handy, and I am sure they are in or near the Taiwan Strait today.
Taiwan can do this on her own!
JMO
SJ
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Post by Swampy on Sept 23, 2021 1:21:37 GMT -5
SJ,
The standard ratio for the offence to overwhelm the offence is 3 to 1. For a seaborne invasion, it would have to be much higher, for the reasons you said. And, as you also said, the parents in China aren't going to be too happy to know that their one child drowned a few miles from the shores of Taiwan.
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Post by Sir John on Sept 23, 2021 11:31:38 GMT -5
I took this ratio from the fact that Eisenhower put 156,000 troops onto the beach on the 6th June.
The German defenders in the local 5 beaches area was about 85,000. Surrounding divisions did not arrive until too late to change the outcome. Eisenhower also had TOTAL command of the air and sea and had an unlimited supply chain to back him up.
But no matter, the task is impossible in my view and only extreme carelessness and poor preparation can invite defeat.
The invasion fleet would normally sail at the speed of the slowest ships and that is about 15 knots I think. That means that Taiwan has about 7 or 8 hours to sink or disable the troop and supply ships.
600 Brave Wind 3s against 150 ships should be more than enough.
Admiral XI knows all of that too!
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Post by Sir John on Sept 24, 2021 15:49:44 GMT -5
A Post Script,
I have no doubt that China is on the wrong path, and will if she persists cause a very wide and powerful Alliance that will make her ambitions impossible to achieve.
The "QUAD" is but the first step, and I fully expect that a PTO - 'Pacific Treaty Organisation' will eventually emerge. That PTO could well join together a dozen or more nations that well remember the 1930s and '40s and the appeasement that led to the carnage of WW2 and the bloody lessons learned.
China is at a great geographic disadvantage, and her economy can be choked to death in a very short time. The 5 major Straits in the Indonesian archipeligo are a good example of what she risks. ALL can be mined in an afternoon if needed. Almost nothing can get in or out of China without major difficulty. Even the Trans Siberian Railway would be near collapse in short order.
Even little Taiwan can lay seige to China with anti-ship and anti-air missiles capable of locking up the major part of China's east coast.
JMO
SJ
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Post by Swampy on Sept 25, 2021 1:44:14 GMT -5
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Post by Sir John on Sept 25, 2021 14:04:43 GMT -5
NZ has some VERY fierce troops armed with SPEARS and CLUBS.
They do a very cute little dance called the Haka, and they stick their tongues out at the enemy.
SJ
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Post by Sir John on Sept 25, 2021 14:05:51 GMT -5
Canada has the same, but they have LEE-ENFIELDS!
1914 models!
...and F-18As that they bought from Australia at $1.99 each.
All they need is new wings, fusilage, and engines.
SJ
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Post by Swampy on Sept 25, 2021 21:48:11 GMT -5
Every little bit helps, even the Aussies who are better at building railroads for the Japanese than at fighting them.
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