EU proposes 2nd-class status for Britain.

[Swampy]

According to the proposal, Britain would be stripped of the right to a veto at the European council and also not have a commissioner, but it could stay in the single market.

It's starting ...

[Deleted]

Am I correct in thinking that GB never wanted the EU in the first place? What sort of impact, if any, would there be on GB if she wasn't part of the EU?

[mcnoch]

In the UK it was long a very established way to distract the people from ongoing critical issues while bashing the EU or Germany. That always gets the headlines while they can sneak thru some unpopular measures. This time the anti-EU distraction went a bit out of control so the UK government is trying to mend some fences and get out of the hot water into which it was pushed some months ago by some gross errors in their politics. The UK would suffer tremendous loses in economical and especially financial power if it would leave the EU. The EU would block all Euro-related trade on the London exchange and the UK industry won’t be able to stand the additional costs it would suffer from losing the advantages from the EU open-market. The EU countries are the most important trading partners for the UK, many UK companies are controlled by EU companies and they would disband or reduce these UK companies and the financial laws would remove all Euro-trading in London and make Paris and Frankfurt the new top-finance-center of Europe.

As the current UK government is not very well liked in the EU, it is natural that some politicians like to show the UK government the potential results of its foolishness. But this suggestion here has a different target. It wants to help the UK government to survive as an EU member in case the internal pressure is forcing it to leave the EU. As otherwise the UK would go down within 5 years and the EU would have to rescue the UK.

[Deleted]

On the surface, it sounds somewhat similar to pre WWII politics.

[mcnoch]

Denny, not sure what you mean with this. Can you please explain this thought?

[Deleted]

There isn't a lot of thought or intrigue behind the question. It just seems to me that prior to WWII, Germany was trying to isolate England and I was wondering if this could be more of the same. MUCH different case and motives, I'm sure, but it does remind me of the times.

[Sir John]

Denny,

I think Britain has been suspicious of Europe for centuries. Many countries have made it to the top of thw heap on the Continent, and immediately looked at Britain as the only remaining opposition.

Socialist Europe now looks at Conservative Britain in that light.

Just my impression.



SJ

[Swampy]

Britain would be hurt if it left the EU, but it can have a free-trade agreement, which everyone supports, and still opt out of any socialist programs that Brussels wishes to impose. As Maggie said, the British don't want to roll back socialism at the national level only to have it imposed at the European level.

[Deleted]

Dec 31, 2012 15:08:50 GMT -5 Sir John said:

denny,

I think Britain has been suspicious of Europe for centuries. Many countries have made it to the top of thw heap on the Continent, and immediately looked at Britain as the only remaining opposition.

Sociaist Europe now looks at Conservative Britain in that light.

Just my impression.



SJ

That's pretty much what I thought as well. I never have been able to understand why there is always a split between England and Europe. But, since I've only lived in Europe (while in the Army) for seven years I guess I can't be expected to understand. I've always been an Anglophobe (phile?) more so than a Europophobe (phile?) but I don't know why. Probably because of the commonality of language, etc. All that said, I identify more with the Aussies than any other country.

[mcnoch]

No, the whole topic of the UK leaving the EU was started by nationalistic circles in the conservative party of the UK. So it is a problem of self-isolation of the UK. We saw similar things happening during the high-point of the Euro-crisis in other EU-countries too, but this has calmed down now and e.g. the separatist-movement in Catalonia suffered a major set-back in the local election. It is a common error of these movements to think that they could get rid of the costs while retaining all the advantages of memberships in state-organizations.

[boxcar]

>The UK would suffer tremendous loses in economical and especially financial power if it would leave the EU. The EU would block all Euro-related trade on the London exchange and the UK industry won’t be able to stand the additional costs it would suffer from losing the advantages from the EU open-market. The EU countries are the most important trading partners for the UK, many UK companies are controlled by EU companies and they would disband or reduce these UK companies and the financial laws would remove all Euro-trading in London and make Paris and Frankfurt the new top-finance-center of Europe.<

It would seem this might deprive the EU of Brent crude (North Sea oil) were this to happen. The New York or Chicago market only deals in West Texas Intermediate, not Brent. For Paris or Frankfurt to try to nose into this area just might present a problem.

As for the UK suffering from not being a EU member, might I remind you that Norway is not a EU member and does quite well living outside of the EU, thank you.

[Swampy]

Everybody loses if there's a trade war - history has shown that.

[mcnoch]

Dec 31, 2012 19:17:44 GMT -5 boxcar said:

It would seem this might deprive the EU of Brent crude (North Sea oil) were this to happen. The New York or Chicago market only deals in West Texas Intermediate, not Brent. For Paris or Frankfurt to try to nose into this area just might present a problem.

As for the UK suffering from not being a EU member, might I remind you that Norway is not a EU member and does quite well living outside of the EU, thank you.

The North Sea Oil comes mainly from Norway not the UK and oil plays only a minor role for the banking sector which is the heart of The City.

Norway - like Swiss - was never part of the EU and lives more or less from it's oil and gas reserves. The UK economy in contrast is part of the EU economy system and would have to change. All the EU institutions and funding for science and infrastructure etc.. would leave the country. It might be of interest for you that those who oppose the idea of the UK leaving the EU are the business managers and business oriented conservatives. The anti-EU block are mostly nationalistic oriented older conservatives who still have problems to accept the UK lost its empire. They are not many, but they know very well to play the emotions of the UK public, a bit like the TP in the USA.

[Deleted]

Your last sentence rang warning bells (for the EU and GB) in my brain. The TP, while significantly diminished in power, still holds enough power to influence GOP politics. I'm not sure that is necessarily a bad thing now, but it caused chaos in the country for awhile before everyone stopped getting on the bandwagon as it passed by. Now I consider it as more of a watchdog than anything else and that is good. I'm sure this will upset Roth, but it is simply one man's opinion.

[mcnoch]

Indeed, some weeks ago they caused the biggest crisis in EU-history. It looked for some days as they would succeed in pushing Cameron to openly declare that the UK would leave the EU. The discussion over the EU-budget for the next years was their handle, but the EU finance-constitution was designed to avoid crisis caused by a veto-blackmail-attempt by individual countries. These nationalistic voices are still not muted in the UK, but their failure to blackmail the EU and the unexpected counter-fire from the business managers caused them to retreat, hos war and how long we will have to wait and see. Similar forces in Spain were voted – to their complete surprise - out of office during a recent regional election in Catalonia and the other representatives in Europe were muted as the media companies no longer givesthem the media-platform.