Post by mcnoch on Mar 31, 2013 3:30:35 GMT -5
Denny,
Everybody expects China to honor its responsibility as most powerful local nation and use its influence to keep NK under control. But NK is not the poodle controlled by China, it was surviving as the USA and China don’t trust each other, but that is surviving in the wind-shadow of China doesn’t mean that China has control over NK. China has in the recent years rebuild and expanded the railroad infrastructure in the border area with NK, inside China and inside NK, way beyond what makes sense economically. There are clearly military considerations in place.
The US carrier and submarine fleets are nearly complete in their home-ports, so the USA is clearly not gearing up for a war there soon. The USA can’t attack preemptively, and even when NK would start the war, the USA is currently not interested to invade NK. They would like to defend the border and SK, but not venture to occupy NK. China could do that and sell it as liberation of the NK people from the disaster the young Kim caused. And if NK becomes dangerous enough many neighbors might see this as a positive development. China could prove to be a reliable local power, acting in the common interest of all the local countries in danger of NK behavior. They could show that they can solve a problem, the US can’t solve. This might help them with other local disputes, where the USA can’t help too. The NK population will welcome them – at first – as liberator. That wouldn’t be unprecedented; there have similar invasions in the past; remember Vietnam invading Cambodia to remove the Khmer Rouge.
The problem for China would start in the mid- to long-term prospect for NK. They won’t like to stay there; occupation armies never look good in the long-run. Their exit-strategy might be to hand NK over to SK in exchange for SK to leave SEATO, very similar to what Russia wanted with Germany in 1990.
Everybody expects China to honor its responsibility as most powerful local nation and use its influence to keep NK under control. But NK is not the poodle controlled by China, it was surviving as the USA and China don’t trust each other, but that is surviving in the wind-shadow of China doesn’t mean that China has control over NK. China has in the recent years rebuild and expanded the railroad infrastructure in the border area with NK, inside China and inside NK, way beyond what makes sense economically. There are clearly military considerations in place.
The US carrier and submarine fleets are nearly complete in their home-ports, so the USA is clearly not gearing up for a war there soon. The USA can’t attack preemptively, and even when NK would start the war, the USA is currently not interested to invade NK. They would like to defend the border and SK, but not venture to occupy NK. China could do that and sell it as liberation of the NK people from the disaster the young Kim caused. And if NK becomes dangerous enough many neighbors might see this as a positive development. China could prove to be a reliable local power, acting in the common interest of all the local countries in danger of NK behavior. They could show that they can solve a problem, the US can’t solve. This might help them with other local disputes, where the USA can’t help too. The NK population will welcome them – at first – as liberator. That wouldn’t be unprecedented; there have similar invasions in the past; remember Vietnam invading Cambodia to remove the Khmer Rouge.
The problem for China would start in the mid- to long-term prospect for NK. They won’t like to stay there; occupation armies never look good in the long-run. Their exit-strategy might be to hand NK over to SK in exchange for SK to leave SEATO, very similar to what Russia wanted with Germany in 1990.
