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Post by Swampy on Oct 22, 2021 0:13:25 GMT -5
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Post by Sir John on Oct 22, 2021 9:39:53 GMT -5
No real military need to 'send in the Marines'.
Taiwan has the means to stop an invasion fleet in that 150 kms of the Strait. That fleet will not sail before a barrage of air and missile attacks and both of which are an act of war, so the retaliation can start even before the fleet actually sails. That fleet MUST be about 30+ troopships, maybe the same of supply ships plus decoys and escorts.
Taiwan has the 'indigenous' missiles to stop the fleet and the paratroop planes well before they reach the sand. All she has to do is disable maybe half of the troopships and supply ships, and that will destroy the cohesion of the force and create a god awful mess on arrival. The chain of command will be fragmented and totally confused.
Most of the west coast of Taiwan is mud flats, and the 2 probable months for an invasion are April and October (weather and tides) and the 'doable' beaches are near Taipei and are well prepped for the welcome. The east coast has some nice beaches and nice high mountains as soon as the troops get to shore. All the east coast roads have lots of bridges.
As for re-supply I imagine it will be near impossible. No 'PLUTO' for Emporer XI!
Taiwans 2 main missiles have been in production for over 10 years and are 1st class, the supersonic Brave Wind outclasses the Harpoon which is obsolete. The Sky Bow is hypersonic and can down a paratroop plane over China as it takes off.
NIL chance of a surprise attack as the US satellites overfly China from 8 to 12 times a day, every day.
It took Gen Eisenhower A YEAR to gather his men and material in preparation for 'Overlord' and the task is every bit as big for an invasion of Taiwan. I expect that China will take Kinmen (easy) first, and then maybe Dongsha (difficult) second, and then maybe Matsu (more difficult again).
AND all those poor drowning Chinese soldiers are an only child, and Mum and Dad are going to be a bit cranky about getting a letter from Emporer XI.
JMNHO.
Grand Admiral Sir John.
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Post by Swampy on Oct 22, 2021 13:33:03 GMT -5
It took Eisenhower TWO years to prepare for D-Day, and he needed constant bombardment at the same time. None of that is possible with the Chinese.
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Post by Sir John on Oct 22, 2021 14:05:37 GMT -5
No, Eisenhower was not appointed until late 1943 though accumulation of material then troops began earlier after 'Torch' and Sicily.
And "Major Operations" of the USAAF did not begin until May 1943 and in the bombing lead up Eisenhower ordered that a ratio of 4 raids for every one in the Normandy area be followed.
Object #1 for the Taiwanese is to stop the troopships and supply ships, once that is achieved the entire purpose of the fleet is out of reach. All they have left is missiles and blockade, but Taiwan can do the same things to China. Taiwan can stop most if not all sea and airborne traffic to and from China. Her Yun Feng LACM missiles can even place the CV #003 in grave danger.
Taiwan is building a seaborne and airborne mine warfare capability and that is an important factor. The invasion fleet cannot lie at anchor and wait for them to be swept.
SJ
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