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Post by Sir John on Aug 16, 2012 18:19:32 GMT -5
A question for Tim I think.
With all the dispute over sovereignty over various 'island' groups in the South China Sea, what is your view of events to come.
Will China's aggressive attitude make all her neighbours fearful and suspicious of her? Will the Philippines etc stand up to the threats?
Will push come to shove eventually?
It seems to me that the neighbours are confronted with an 'appeasement' situation and a test of their resolve to stand up to the bully. Maybe the next test will be an expansion of China's borders to within the 12 mile limit of her neighbours?
Will India call the Indian Ocean, and all islands in it, hers one day?
SJ
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tim
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Post by tim on Aug 16, 2012 21:30:19 GMT -5
Hi John. I have spend two months in the Philippines his year and have been to Japan, Korea and the Philippines at least 30 times in recent years. This year there have been noticable changes in that 5 nation struggle over ownership of those islands. China has become very aggressive, stationing more troops and ships where it thinks there are natural resouces (fish, oil and gas primarily). The Philippines is unable to press it's claims, as it has a one ship navy. But it is alowing more U.S. Military in country (e.g, some U.S. Navy is returning to Subic and there are Navy Seals elsewhere. The U.S. is there not just because of older problems with the New People's Army, a Maoist group, and the Abu Sayaff and related Muslim groups. Today, the biggest military problem for the Phillipines is China. It will probably surprise everyone that Japan's Defense minister was in the Philippines in June. He was the first Japanese military man to visit Japan since WWII. A harbor project in the Visayas might turn out to be a "Subic" for the Japanese Navy. If Japan is able to establish a naval base in the Philippines, the reason will be clear. Japan is invovled with very bitter struggles with both Korea and China over some of the islands. I think push is coming to shove very quickly. I have not keep up with the Indian Ocean problem, but I do know that India has worried about China's military involvement in Burma and it's development of bases on the Coco Islands (which are owned or at least claimed by Burma). Hopefully Ash will discover this form and share his expertise on Indian military affairs.
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Post by Swampy on Aug 16, 2012 21:48:09 GMT -5
I think the Middle Kingdom is just rattling a saber that's rusting - China will have a rapidly-aging population, and that will restrict it's ability to project power. Not only that, it's economy is built on a bubble, and, when that bubble pops, so will the money for the military.
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tim
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Post by tim on Aug 17, 2012 12:26:15 GMT -5
Hi Swampy. I agree that China has very big problems -- e.g., an aging population without safety nets, a bubble economy, the floating population, and the water problem (before Obamacare, Mao's still unfulfilled 1958 South North Acqueduct system to carry water to the north, was the biggest Stalinist project left in the entire world). But just when I think China has been overwhelmed by its problems, it adjusts and keeps going. Ultimately, it could go the way of N. Korea and devote every yuan to maintaining its military. But, I don't think the people of China would like that very much having had a taste of the good life.
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Post by Sir John on Aug 17, 2012 15:16:37 GMT -5
Tim,
I have read some essays that put forward the proposition that the CCP is terrified of its own people.
As you say, it knows that they have tasted a small part of the good life, and it is HEAPS better than the peasant life they have known for 5000 years. They also see it on the internet all the time. They know what it is like in the US and Europe.(and Australia).
The Billion Chinese that are well below the CCP members are perfectly capable of turning on a Teinanmen Square in every major city in China at the drop of a hat.
China will keep its factories going no matter what, they cannot do otherwise. If they sell the stuff to Walmart or the lady down the road makes no difference to them. They will even build dozens of (empty) 'Ghost cities' if it keeps wages in the workers pockets.
As I have said on other forums, china is built on a foundation of sand and bovine excreta. Its GDP etc figures are BS also. It WILL eventually collapse under its own contradictions. Not to mention its population time bomb.
JMO
SJ
PS, I 'stumbled' on a series of pictures of some VERY pretty Chinese girls in teeny weenies and the (other) interesting part was that the background was mainly Chinese workers rooms and houses and the surrounding neighbourhood. The message was clear, their world was abject poverty.
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Post by Sir John on Aug 17, 2012 18:09:57 GMT -5
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Post by jerryfmcompushaft on Aug 17, 2012 20:36:10 GMT -5
Thanks, John. A great example of what happens when th government takes charge of the economy. Interesting that that one guy who can't afford to buy a home that he so much wants, looks to the government to resolve the problem. That is the bigest danger of the growing "entitlement society"... Scary.
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tim
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Post by tim on Aug 18, 2012 9:56:21 GMT -5
Hi John. I have seen programs on China's ghost cities. Great expectations! Many people bought units in the highrise condos in these citys but entire cities went bust and lots of middle class people lost every yuan they invested. That will lead to much discontent but i don't think to revolt or revolution. These of people of some means. The group I think China is most worried about is the "floating population." It consists of very poor people (almost all men) who have left their families and villages to roam China looking for work -- mostly at construction sites. If construction is no longer booming in China, these will be very unhappy people. I don't know the current estimate of their numbers but in the past I have seen 50 and 100 million as estimates. Their living conditions are very poor and they are far from any support they might otherwise receive from family and village. I wonder how many of these people received military training under China's old "people's army" concept.
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Post by Swampy on Aug 18, 2012 9:59:41 GMT -5
The government has surplus funds, so it should use those up to buy up the empty apartments and give them to the not-so-poor.
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Post by jerryfmcompushaft on Aug 18, 2012 10:00:03 GMT -5
The "floating population" seems ill equiped to do much in the way of 'revolt' poor, ragtag, unorganized - maybe a 'kiss in' at Chick-fil-a....
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tim
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Post by tim on Aug 18, 2012 10:30:06 GMT -5
I don't know who currectly owns those apartment. My first guess would have been the government. But I don't really know. Also, there is nothing in these ghost cities. New inhabitants would have to bring jobs, create businesses, create a local government, police and fire servies, etc. I would not like to live there, if for a free apartment. :-)
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tim
Junior Member
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Post by tim on Aug 18, 2012 10:37:17 GMT -5
Maybe Beijing should move, wholesale, into one of these Ghost cities. There is much talk about abandoning Beijing or moving the government to Shanghai because the Gobi Desert is reclaiming the entire area around Beijing. That's the red dust that blows into Beijing at this time of year. And, flying into Beijing you can see an enormous depression that goes on for miles and miles. It has been caused by the loss of ground water. 30 years ago well water could be found at about 15 feet. Now it is necessay to drill 150+ feet to find water. Maybe we can export water to China or trade it for rare earths.
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Post by Swampy on Aug 18, 2012 10:40:25 GMT -5
But Beijing would be a ghost city, and what're they going to do then? Move Nanjing residents to Beijing? And Shanghai residents to Nanjing?
That would really create lots of economic activity.
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tim
Junior Member
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Post by tim on Aug 19, 2012 14:14:51 GMT -5
Beijing is going to be part of the Gobi unless someone can figure out how to hold back the desert and import water. Mao 1958 pipe dream (literally) of bringing water from the south (where is in excess and floods everywhere) to the north, over or under some 274 rivers and streams remains a pipe dream today. Until Obama announced his health care plan, I had thought that Mao's dream would be the last of the great Stalinist projectes. Hopefully, come this November, I will be correct again. As for what will happen to Beijing? I don't know. But I think we could make a good business of selling its inhabitants water. I once knew a guy who bottled Anchorage, AK, tap water and sold it to Taiwan.
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Post by Simonhaha on Aug 23, 2012 21:19:13 GMT -5
it may just maintain in speech .
Since don't make benife involve to south island
The resource beside is different to senkaku island
The cirical is losting face ,and usa support .
And the accident of 8/23 . China can't let pillphnes get more benife .it is unacceptable to give pillphnes benife benefit
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