A view on Taiwan.

[Sir John]

Every so often we hear or read threats from China that she will "take back" Taiwan at the drop of a hat if provoked.

Looking at it from the defending Generals point of view Taiwan is about as easy as you could hope for to defend. It is further away from the 1944 Invasion ports as were from the Normandy beaches, about 125 kms.

The entire island has about 4 times as many soldiers as Hitler had to defend western France and Normandy.

The Taiwanese have 2 islands a stones throw from the actual PRC mainland and their invasion ports and airfields. The PRC cannot scratch itself without Taiwan knowing about it via radars and US satellites, which overfly the PRC coast about 12 times a day I believe. The same gear applies on the Pescadores.

The PRC cannot possibly accumulate the ships and planes for an invasion fleet without Taiwan knowing about it immediately.

Taiwan has TERRIBLE terrain to mount an invasion. The east coast is almost 'uninvadeable' with a coastline climbing to mountains almost immediately. The west coast is almost all built up areas and/or MUD FLATS!

All Taiwan REALLY needs to start the 1,000,000 man swim is the TOP radars, and the TOP anti-air missiles, and the TOP ant--ship missiles etc. All truck launched by the way. LOTS of them! No fancy ships, no fancy fighters, no fancy tanks.


Tim?




SJ

[Swampy]

I googled, "Invasion of Taiwan", and I got this reference to a Rand study, which states an invasion could succeed (!) but there were problems.

First of all, China can only bring across 31,000 soldiers in the first wave.

Second, the Taiwanese torpedo-boats by themselves could destroy that assault wave.

Third, the US nuclear submarines, bombers, and jets flying from safety in Guam could provide backup to those torpedo boats.

Last, but certainly not least, the Chinese economy is now so intertwined with the Taiwanese one that it would be hurting its own economy - which it cannot do, because it needs to find a way to pay for building those ghost cities.

Maybe the North Koreans could help out here.

[Sir John]

Swampy,


That 'think tank' is making a basic error in its assumptions.

It is assuming that it will be a classic air and sea war between the PRC and Taiwan with the USA as a helper. That is NOT the way it should be fought!

For a start Taiwan is not going to have all its airforce lined up on the tarmac waiting to be zapped by PRC missiles. They will be in hardened bunkers all over the place, and even if they lost them in that scenario, as i said it is MISSILES that will stop the PRC.
Her ships ands planes SHOULD be zapped in that 125 mile killing zone on their way to the island. The radars and satellites will tell the Taiwanese that the preparations are being made, and the concentrations are obvious.

All the TRUCK LAUNCHED missiles will be out of the tunnels and on the coastal roads ready to fire at will. The PRC will have NO idea where those tunnels are - IF the Taiwanese know how to keep a secret, and build 5 tunnels for every truck.

The 1000 or so 'Harpoons' will zap the LSTs and destroyers long before the PRC coast falls below the horizon. The C47s etc will be shot down before they get within 25 miles of the objective.


If Taiwan gets its hands on 1000 or so 'Tomahawks', the survivors will not even have a usable base to return to.

Game over!



SJ

[boxcar]

The Chinese economy being so intertwined with the Taiwanese is not all that credible. Each can live very well without the other. And the term Taiwanese is a misnomer. The old Nationalist Chinese are in control. The true Taiwanese are a subdued people.

[Sir John]

China should learn some good old European words of wisdom:-


"You catch more flies with honey, than you do with vinegar".

China could charm the pants off Taiwan and she would probably re-join voluntarily. All she has to do is look at Hong Kong etc.

SJ