Will US shale oil hurt the EU?

[Swampy]

A law professor in London, England, says it will, because the US will become self-sufficient in oil and so will not care about oil supplies in the Middle East. This will mean the EU will have to look after its own supplies, and that will mean using its own military without help from the US.

That is totally wrong.

America may not need Saudi oil supplies in the future, but it wants a balance of power in its favor. This will mean ensuring, first of all, that Iran and its fellow jihadists do NOT take over the Middle East, which would mean a power bloc hostile to the US. Furthermore, the US has an interest in ensuring a friendly EU, because the EU is still the largest economic bloc in the world, and this means protecting that interests of that continent.

And history has shown it. The US in WWII, for example, did not need the wheat fields of the Ukraine, but it had an interest in preventing the Nazis from taking those; it also had no interest in the rice paddies of China, but it had an interest in preventing the Japanese from taking them. That is the intricate nature of international relations.

So the Europeans should rest easy and focus on their real problem - their economy and its labor rigidity.

[mcnoch]

The US may export oil and gas to Europe to roll-back the influence of Russia in the European theatre.

[Swampy]

Dec 30, 2012 15:19:11 GMT -5 mcnoch said:

The US may export oil and gas to Europe to roll-back the influence of Russia in the European theatre.

Exactly!

[boxcar]

He who does the exporting has bid the correct price on the Merchantile Exchange Mart.

[mcnoch]

A new study - of the German Foreign Intelligence Service - points out, that the USA can save a lot of money by reducing its military presence in the Middle East, as this area will be from 2020 of only minor interest for the USA. This will hurt the Iran's position on the negotiation table. But China will heavily depend on this area (50 % of the Arabian oil will be sold to China), but will not be able to safeguard their trading-routes, what strategically is not a good position.

Other nations, especially from Africa will export their oil then no longer to the USA but to Europe, where Russia's influence will be weakened. At the same time the USA can start to export oil and gas and reduce its trading deficit by 50% until 2020 while fueling their domestic economy by selling energy to a much reduced price and make the USA so attractive for energy-hungry productions and improving the private and public cost-balance due to lower energy prices.

[jerryfmcompushaft]

I've been saying that for months now, but nobody was paying attention....

[mcnoch]

So, it took the German Intel Service a bit longer to translate what you have said into German.;-)

[jerryfmcompushaft]

Jan 18, 2013 14:52:47 GMT -5 mcnoch said:

So, it took the German Intel Service a bit longer to translate what you have said into German.;-)

Yeah...that must be it...

[bluejay77]

Dec 26, 2012 22:47:42 GMT -5 Swampy said:

A law professor in London, England, says it will, because the US will become self-sufficient in oil and so will not care about oil supplies in the Middle East. This will mean the EU will have to look after its own supplies, and that will mean using its own military without help from the US.

That is totally wrong.

America may not need Saudi oil supplies in the future, but it wants a balance of power in its favor. This will mean ensuring, first of all, that Iran and its fellow jihadists do NOT take over the Middle East, which would mean a power bloc hostile to the US. Furthermore, the US has an interest in ensuring a friendly EU, because the EU is still the largest economic bloc in the world, and this means protecting that interests of that continent.

And history has shown it. The US in WWII, for example, did not need the wheat fields of the Ukraine, but it had an interest in preventing the Nazis from taking those; it also had no interest in the rice paddies of China, but it had an interest in preventing the Japanese from taking them. That is the intricate nature of international relations.

So the Europeans should rest easy and focus on their real problem - their economy and its labor rigidity.

As to the real problems of Europe, my analysis about that question, to a USNA individual over a barbecue in Portland, Oregon was:

1) some (not all) European governments have been somewhat irresponsible with their economy, as an example Greece

2) Europe has not been doing well in the scientific-technological competition against the USA, Japan and the Far East 'Tigers'. The Chinese seem to be to an extent dumping their technology, and furthermore they are keeping the value of the yuan artificially low

3) the political environment in Continental Europe is slightly unstable.

And; add to that what Swampy said.